Skip to content

Coronavirus is hundreds of times more deadly for people over 60 than people under 40

Coronavirus is hundreds of times more deadly for people over 60 than people under 40

September 10, 2020 (Posted by) Don Pelton

Death rates vary by demographic, with age and race playing big roles. AP Photo/Kathy Willens

By Nir Menachemi, IUPUI

How deadly is SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19? And what are the risks of death for people of different ages and demographics? These have been hard numbers to calculate during this pandemic.

To calculate the true death rate – more accurately called the infection–fatality ratio (IFR) – you would simply divide the total number of coronavirus deaths by the total number of infections. The problem is that with so many asymptomatic cases and limited testing for much of the pandemic, finding the true number of infections has been very difficult.

The easiest way to calculate more accurate infection and death rates is to perform random testing.

I am a professor of health policy and management. In April, in partnership with the Indiana State Department of Health, I led a team of researchers at Indiana University to randomly select and test people for SARS-CoV-2. Based on our statistical sample, we found that 2.8% of Indiana – or approximately 188,000 people – had been cumulatively infected by that time and determined the death rate in Indiana to be 0.58%.

Using the data we gathered from that testing program, over the past few months, my colleagues and I set out to determine how the infection–fatality ratio differs by age, race and other demographic factors. In a study published on Sept. 2, we report that the coronavirus is hundreds of times more deadly for people over 60 compared to people under 40, and that in Indiana, non-white people are dying at three times the rate of white people.

A drawing of many faces from many different demographic groups.
Not all groups of people face the same risk of death from the coronavirus. Mashot/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Age matters most, but race matters too

Not all groups of people face equal risk of death from the coronavirus. Researchers and health officials have known for months that there were discrepancies, but by calculating death rates, our paper gives the most accurate data about these differences.

Almost half of COVID-19 deaths have occurred among people in nursing homes because these people are generally less healthy and face a much higher risk of serious illness. We wanted to determine the risk of death for people not in nursing homes or other live–in institutions, so the numbers below are for Indiana residents who live out in the community.

The overall infection fatality ratio among community-dwelling people in Indiana was 0.26%, or one death for every 385 people infected. Age, more than race or sex, was the biggest factor affecting the death rate.

For people 60 or over, one in every 58 infections resulted in death, an IFR of 1.7%. For comparison, the IFR from influenza in the U.S. among people over 65 years is 0.8%. COVID-19 is approximately 2.5 times more deadly than the flu in this age group.

Risk drops off as age decreases. For middle-aged adults between 40 and 59 years old, the IFR was 0.12% – or one death for every 833 infections.

And for infected people under 40, death was uncommon at only about one in 10,000 – an IFR of 0.01%.

While age was the strongest factor affecting the death rate, racial differences were notable too. Non-white Indiana residents across all age groups had a three-times higher risk of death if they became infected – an IFR of 0.59% – compared to white residents – 0.18% IFR.

A person in a lab coat checking another person with a stethoscope.
People with additional health problems are most at risk, and older people and racial minorities tend to be the least healthy groups in the U.S. Ake Ngiamsanguan/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Death rates mirror other measures of health

For COVID–19, like most diseases, the worse your health before you get infected, the worse your chances of fighting off the virus.

Researchers know that certain chronic diseases – including cardiovascular, kidney, and lung diseases, as well as diabetes – all increase one’s risk of death from COVID-19. Our team didn’t collect extensive health data from the people we tested, but these chronic diseases are more common among the elderly and racial minorities in the U.S.

Other factors, like food and housing insecurity and insufficient access to care, also make fighting off disease more challenging and are more common among elderly and minority populations. The higher infection–fatality ratios we found in these groups are likely due to a combination of comorbidities and these other factors.

Are these numbers applicable across the US?

Our study gave us the most accurate statewide look at infection and death rates so far in the U.S. The question is whether Indiana is a good comparison to the rest of the country.

Indiana ranks relatively low for overall health among states in the U.S. However, Indiana’s median age is slightly lower than the U.S. overall and lower than many states.

I believe that the numbers we found for community-dwelling people in Indiana are likely close to national averages, but the infection–fatality ratio could vary from state to state or town to town. If your state’s elderly population is healthier than the same group in Indiana, the IFR could be a little lower. If your state is less healthy, than the risk will be higher.

The most obvious way to prevent deaths and serious illness from COVID-19 is to reduce the number of people who are infected. By doing simple things like wearing a mask and practicing social distancing, everyone can help protect each other and especially our friends, neighbors, customers and counterparts who face the most risk from the pandemic.

[Get facts about coronavirus and the latest research. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter.]The Conversation


Nir Menachemi, Professor of Health Policy and Management, IUPUI

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Aging, Articles, Black Lives, Corona Virus, Health Care, Science, Trump Virus

Post navigation

PREVIOUS
If You Are Offered a Trump Virus Vaccine by November 1st, Don’t Take It
NEXT
The complicated legacy of the Pilgrims is finally coming to light 400 years after they landed in Plymouth

Join Our Mailing List

Comments are closed.

PEACE IN UKRAINE

CLICK IMAGE BELOW TO WRITE ONLINE LETTER OPPOSING THE MINE

DONATE TO THE FOOD BANK OF NEVADA COUNTY

(CLICK IMAGE)

DONATE TO NEVADA COUNTY RELIEF FUND (click image below)

Subscribe to Sierra Voices Journal

Jack Kornfield: A Steady Heart in Time of Corona Virus (Part I)

Erika Lewis, Shaye Cohn, Craig Flory – Got A Mind To Ramble

“Everlasting Arms”

Tara Brach: A Steady Heart in Time of Corona Virus (Part II)

Recent Posts

  • An Apology, and an Explanation
  • NATO Chief Admits NATO Expansion Was Key to Russian Invasion of Ukraine
  • Stumbling Towards Old Age
  • Social Security Overpays Billions to People, Many on Disability. Then It Demands the Money Back.
  • The Truth About U.S. Foreign Policy

Recent Comments

  • Missouri v. Biden: Prelimary Injunction Important Victory for First Amendment (so far) on Matt Taibbi, An Example of Journalistic Integrity
  • “FDR Met With Stalin. JFK Met With Khrushchev. Nixon met with Brezhnev. Reagan met with Gorbachev. Can’t Biden Meet With Putin?” on THE Most Important Article I’ve Ever Posted to Sierra Voices
  • The Gathering Storm on Professor Jeffrey Sachs: “What you’re being told about this conflict and others is simply not true.”
  • If You Laughed at the Doomsday Clock Update, You Should Find This Hilarious on The Grim Poetry of Science
  • In Praise of Warriors, and Criticism of War on Celebrated to Death: Memorial Day Is Killing Us

Archives

  • September 2023
  • August 2023
  • July 2023
  • June 2023
  • May 2023
  • April 2023
  • March 2023
  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • November 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • December 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • January 2014
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • May 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • November 2010
  • October 2010
  • September 2010
  • August 2010
  • July 2010
  • June 2010
  • May 2010
  • April 2010
  • March 2010
  • February 2010
  • January 2010
  • December 2009
  • November 2009
  • October 2009
  • September 2009
  • August 2009

Categories

  • Abortion
  • Afghan Trap
  • Afghanistan
  • Aging
  • AI
  • Alzheimer's
  • American Empire
  • Anti-Depressant
  • Anti-Semitism
  • Anti-War
  • Arms Sales
  • Articles
  • Atlas Obscura
  • Authoritarianism
  • Beavers
  • Black Lives
  • Black Lives Matter
  • Blog
  • Book Bans
  • Buddhism
  • Budget
  • Buskers
  • California
  • Capitalism
  • Carbon Offsets
  • Cartoon
  • Censorship
  • China
  • Chris Hedges
  • Climate Change
  • Cold War II
  • Compassion
  • Constitution
  • Corona Virus
  • Corruption
  • Cosmology
  • Costs of War
  • Coup
  • Covert Regime Change
  • COVID-19
  • Crimea
  • Dams
  • De-Dollarization
  • Democracy
  • Democrats
  • Depression
  • Disenfranchisement
  • Douglas Macgregor
  • Drones
  • Drought
  • Economics
  • Ecosystem Engineers
  • Education
  • Election Fraud
  • Electoral College
  • Empire
  • Environment
  • Extinction
  • Extraterrestrial Civilizations
  • Farming
  • Fascism
  • Fascist Populists
  • Feminism
  • Filibuster
  • Fire!
  • First Amendment
  • Flood Control
  • Floods
  • Food Insecurity
  • Foreign Policy
  • Forest Ecology
  • Forest Management
  • Fracking
  • Free Speech
  • Freedom of the Press
  • Gardening
  • Gender
  • Genocide
  • Global Warming
  • GOP
  • Great Movies
  • Grist
  • Groundwater
  • Halloween
  • Health Care
  • High Country News
  • History
  • Humor
  • Hunger
  • Idaho-Maryland Mine
  • Ignorance
  • Immigration
  • Indigenous Peoples' Day
  • Insects
  • Insurrection
  • Iran
  • Israel
  • Joy
  • Labor
  • Lobbying
  • Local
  • Lunar Influence
  • Marijuana
  • Masks
  • Media
  • Medical Care
  • Men
  • Men's Issues
  • Mental Health
  • Middle Class
  • Military Industrial Complex
  • Mining
  • MMT
  • Modern Monetary Theory
  • Moral Obligations
  • Music
  • Native Americans
  • NATO
  • Neocons
  • Neoliberalism
  • New Cold War
  • Nuclear Fusion
  • Nuclear War
  • Nuclear Winter
  • Nutrition
  • Oligarchy
  • Oysters
  • Palestine
  • Pandemic
  • Parenting
  • Peace
  • Peter Russell
  • Pharmaceuticals
  • Physics
  • Poetry
  • Police
  • Politics
  • Populism
  • Press
  • Propaganda
  • Putin
  • Race
  • Regime Change
  • Religion
  • Republican Derangement
  • Republicans
  • Reviews
  • Revolution
  • Right-wing terrorism
  • Rights of Nature
  • Rise Gold
  • Rivers
  • Roe v. Wade
  • Romance
  • Russia
  • Russiagate
  • Science
  • Scott Ritter
  • Slavery
  • Sleep
  • Smoke Inhalation
  • Social Security
  • Spineless
  • Student Debt
  • Summer
  • Supreme Court
  • Technology
  • The Hartmann Report
  • Trump Virus
  • Tuba Skinny
  • Twitter Files
  • Tyranny
  • Ukraine
  • Uncategorized
  • Unipolar vs. Multipolar
  • Vaccine Refusal
  • Vaccine Safety
  • Voting
  • War
  • War Crimes
  • War on Government
  • Water
  • Watersheds
  • Wells
  • Wildfires
  • Winter
  • Women's Issues
  • Work
  • Yemen
  • Yugoslavia

Meta

  • Log in
  • Entries feed
  • Comments feed
  • WordPress.org
© 2023   All Rights Reserved.