Things are looking pretty good for the GOP in the midterm election this year. Their strategy of being the “Party of No,” staking out positions contrary to everything Obama supports, doing their best to make sure he fails no matter what the cost to the nation, may be a happy path back to power.
Polling suggests the definite possibility of the GOP recapturing the House.
But this may be the short view.
So says Dylan Loewe, author of the new book, Permanently Blue.
In Loewe’s recent Huffington Post article, he lays out a very plausible scenario for the long-term prospects of the Democratic Party “and the progressive ideals it represents,” based on the demographics of the Hispanic and the “Young Millennials” (Generation-Y) voting populations:
“The Republican Party has been making decisions these last few years that will haunt them long past November. Their adherence to “tea party values” — their full-tilt ideological purification — has left the party in a position where it can no longer moderate. That’s okay during an off-year election in the middle of a sputtering recovery, but in presidential years — like 2012 — the voting population expands. Young voters and minorities show up to the polls in much higher numbers. When that happens, Republicans will find themselves in an incredibly tough spot.”
“They have, for example, doubled-down on their anti-immigrant, anti-Hispanic rhetoric. Not only has the party roundly endorsed the Arizona immigration law, it’s also begun calling for the end of birthright citizenship through the repeal of the Fourteenth Amendment. Not the best formula for winning the Hispanic vote.”
“Why should the Republicans care about the Hispanic vote? Because Hispanics are, by far, the fastest growing population in the country. By 2020, the Hispanic population is projected to grow another 40 percent while the white population grows just 5 percent. In 2008, President Obama won 67 percent of the Hispanic vote, which drove his victories in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Florida. If he can maintain that level of support among Hispanics in 2012, it will be extraordinarily difficult for the Republican nominee to find a path to 270 votes.”
Loewe says that 2010 will be a great year for Republicans, but looking further down the road he sees a much “uglier picture.”
He describes his generation, the “Young Millennials,” the group that gave Barack Obama two-thirds of its support in 2008, as “the most socially liberal generation in American history.”
“Why should that worry Republicans? Because every year between now and 2018, 4 million new Millennials will become eligible voters. That means that 16 million more will be able to vote in 2012 than in 2008, and 32 million more in 2016. Even if they turn out in characteristically low numbers, they will still add millions of new votes into the Democratic column. By 2018, when the entire Millennial generation can vote, they will make up 40 percent of the voting population and be 90 million strong. That’s 14 million more Millennials than Baby Boomers, making the youngest generation the largest in U.S. history.”
“How can the Republican Party possibly court a generation this progressive, and this substantial, without losing its tea party base? And how can they survive on the national stage if they don’t?”
If Loewe is right — and it won’t take too long to find out — this may be the revenge of the Jon Stewart generation, the Millennial generation which is growing-up and moving on to the center stage of history.