We Had a Good Time at the Nevada County Economic Forecast Conference

We had a great time this morning at the Nevada County Economic Forecast Conference in the Veteran’s Hall. It was a lot more fun than we expected.

The people at our table (right next to the stage) were welcoming, energetic and fun: Gil Mathew, Judy Hess, Gary Zimmerman, David Gallo and Peter Van Zant. Only after grabbing a couple of the remaining free chairs in the room did we realize that we were at the speakers’ table. Good choice.

Gary Zimmerman, Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, was the first to speak. He recapped the standard national indicators of the recession: high, long-term unemployment, plunging permits for single family housing, high loan delinquency rates, etc.

His good news was mostly recent news: Increased activity in the housing market (but from a low level), job gains in the recent quarter, upticks in personal consumption, etc.

His summary? A slow recovery, which has already begun in a moderate fashion. “Underutilized capacity and a high unemployment rate are expected to persist for some time.”

Professor David Gallo reported on economic conditions at the county level.

One of his more shocking graphs was labeled “Value of Residential Building Permits: Nevada County 2001-2009,” showing a plunge from a peak of $160 million in 2005 to about $30 million in 2009!

And yet he too had some good news, but to find it he had to look beyond employment growth, which “is a trailing indicator.”

He predicts that “if national growth is between 3% and 4%, then Nevada County growth should be between 4% and 5%.”

“The early stages of recovery for the national economy imply that the economies of California and Nevada County are currently growing as well.”

Comments

4 Responses to “We Had a Good Time at the Nevada County Economic Forecast Conference”
  1. Anna Haynes says:

    Thanks Don for attending and reporting on this. It’s kind of a bummer that they charged $30 for it; I guess they needed to keep the riff-raff out…

    The Union posted a less informative story (link) about it yesterday, & are directing readers to the print version today for the full story.

  2. depelton says:

    Well, Anna, if it helps you justify the cost next year, the price includes a pretty nice breakfast, xerox copies of the presenters’ slides, and a CD of a 152-page economic and demographic profile of Nevada County prepared by Professor David Gallo’s Center for Economic Development (CED) at Cal State, Chico, which includes such choice bits as the following list of the largest employers in the county in 2008:

    County of Nevada 1,025 (number of employees)
    Nevada County Publishing Co 1,000
    Automata Inc 1,000
    Tahoe-Truckee Unified School District 550
    Thomson Grass Valley Inc 400
    Tahoe Forest Hospital District 328
    Twin Ridges Elementary School 300
    Sierra Community College Inc 300
    Trimont Land Co 300
    Pleasant Ridge Union School 230
    Milhous Children’s Services 220
    Pacific Gas & Electric Co 200
    Nevada County Sheriff’s Office 180
    Golden Empire Convalescent 180
    Clear Capitalcom 170

    Eighty percent of the employers in Nevada County have between 1 and 4 employees.

  3. Anna Haynes says:

    > “…a 152-page economic and demographic profile of Nevada County prepared by Professor David Gallo’s Center for Economic Development (CED) at Cal State, Chico…”

    Here, it seems:
    http://www.cedcal.com/assets/Profile-PDF/NevadaProfile09-10.pdf

    Do you know if it was videotaped?
    (note: I’m asking from curiosity, not from a burning desire to go watch it)

  4. depelton says:

    If it was videotaped, I’m not aware of it. But ‘ll check with the ERC and see if I can find out.

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